A large comparative risk assessment across 45 countries found that ultra-processed food consumption exceeding 10% of daily calories is linked to roughly 3.4 million deaths and over 5.6 million disability-adjusted life years from type 2 diabetes annually. The burden falls heaviest on high-income nations — the US and UK show the starkest numbers, with over 40% of type 2 diabetes cases potentially attributable to UPFs. Lower-income countries currently show smaller burdens but face rising risk as Western food systems displace traditional diets. Researchers used established dose-response data from meta-analyses combined with WHO disease burden estimates and Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty. The findings reinforce the urgent need for food policy reform, especially in countries undergoing rapid dietary transition.
